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Jan 16, 2013
01/13
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the question people ask is, can we see anything from the fourth quarter that will tell us what the environment in 2013 is like. i guess my answer to that would still be no. fiscal cliff issues, europe, the election, tropical storms, et cetera, and there's still no real clarity on what the business models, investment banking are going to look like as we head toward three. it's going to be much better numbers than a year ago. numbers are going to be slightly down versus the third quarter. and -- to my mind, there's still really nothing we'll be able to take away from the numbers in terms of -- >> which is frustrating because we're at a time when we are trying to re-evaluate what the model is going to be, what earnings will look like going forward. in your view, what is -- what is the investment case for these investment banks today? >> well, the investment case for an investment bank is that when they work very well, they are extremely capital -- if i advise a company and get a fee for ecm or m&a deal, it requires no capital, and i get a lot of money. that's very attractive. the second thing is
the question people ask is, can we see anything from the fourth quarter that will tell us what the environment in 2013 is like. i guess my answer to that would still be no. fiscal cliff issues, europe, the election, tropical storms, et cetera, and there's still no real clarity on what the business models, investment banking are going to look like as we head toward three. it's going to be much better numbers than a year ago. numbers are going to be slightly down versus the third quarter. and --...
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Jan 15, 2013
01/13
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the group struck a down beat note warning that the global environment would remain challenging. let's take a look at shares. they are trading up nearly 4% in trade in london, up better than 7% in the last seven days. what's interesting, too, this is a company that last year just in talking about chinese sales saw shares get walked. >> after a really big run. there was a lot built into expectation owes that. >> this time, investors seemed happy about beating the last time. >> meantime, the 2% drop for same-store sales for h&m showed total sales up 8% last month, outperforming stims estimates. >>> coming up, we'll take a closer look at burberry with. >> inny carlisle, joining out at so is 10:45 a.m. central european time. set your alarm clock. >> something even more important is going on. for all of those who like a strong pint of bitter, the british beermaker has announced that it is reducing the alcohol content in its ale because of rising costs and lower demand. apparently watered down beer allows the parent company, heineken, to pay a lower rate of duty. so they're going to re
the group struck a down beat note warning that the global environment would remain challenging. let's take a look at shares. they are trading up nearly 4% in trade in london, up better than 7% in the last seven days. what's interesting, too, this is a company that last year just in talking about chinese sales saw shares get walked. >> after a really big run. there was a lot built into expectation owes that. >> this time, investors seemed happy about beating the last time. >>...
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Jan 14, 2013
01/13
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itself, when you've got growth and you've got employment opportunity, you've got income growth and environment of very low interest rate is headache to policymaker in which i think the government here continue to have to fine tunemakers every now and then essentially because after they tighten one time, they quiet down the market, but i comes back again because the liquidity flows remain strong. so whether this is the measures toned all measures remains to be seen, i think if the interest rate remains low, we may see further tightening after a period of quiet. i suppose contemplation, i think. >> stick right there. we also want to take a look at what is happening over in india. we're seeing mixed pictures on inflation. headline inflation slowed to its lowest level in three years, in fact. that was up about 7.2% from a year earlier and well shy of expectations. some say the lower than expected wpi fueled the rate cut from india. does this mean 25 basis point rate cuts and more to come? >> well, there's firm pressure from the politicians on the central bankers to do so. the growth is still rathe
itself, when you've got growth and you've got employment opportunity, you've got income growth and environment of very low interest rate is headache to policymaker in which i think the government here continue to have to fine tunemakers every now and then essentially because after they tighten one time, they quiet down the market, but i comes back again because the liquidity flows remain strong. so whether this is the measures toned all measures remains to be seen, i think if the interest rate...
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Jan 21, 2013
01/13
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the bank of japan, if you monetize the debt in a low inflationary environment, is this a free lunch? >> right. >> in the uk, it has turned out to be a free lunch. would it in japan? possibly, yes, and, therefore, i wonder if these issues ever will be addressed. >> and what's so interesting, you're seeing these bizarre rates happening in a monetary policy. we feel like we're in a whole new regime where people feel like it doesn't matter at all. wondering if it matters at all how much you spend and borrow in these situations. how does it change, if at all your strategy from here? >> it makes having a long-term strategy really, really tough. and you can see that in the markets right now. what people see by more investment, it gets pushed into treasuries, into eks, and we see markets trading at very elevated levels. relative to fundamentals appears to become the norm. and i would argue that we're now in a world where it's very difficult to recruit any decent returns. as a result, as investors, we're going to have to live with that. >> and a lot of people are just closing up shop and sayi
the bank of japan, if you monetize the debt in a low inflationary environment, is this a free lunch? >> right. >> in the uk, it has turned out to be a free lunch. would it in japan? possibly, yes, and, therefore, i wonder if these issues ever will be addressed. >> and what's so interesting, you're seeing these bizarre rates happening in a monetary policy. we feel like we're in a whole new regime where people feel like it doesn't matter at all. wondering if it matters at all...
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Jan 17, 2013
01/13
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and then the mortgage re-phi boom in this interest rate environment has been a boom in the past couple of years. those are going to expire at some point. with interest rates where they are, it's difficult for the banks on margin. there's no question the banking system is much stronger, earning better and is has much higher capital and liquidity than it's had probably forever almost. >> you know, well, that's quite a statement because there's a lot of people who would still say banks shouldn't necessarily be turning around and handing capital back to shareholderses. would you agree that given the improvements we've made, it's time for them to be allowed to go forward? >> i think that the banks have accumulated so much capital and that they really don't have a good use for it in light of the lack of qualified loan demand. i'm not saying lack of loan demand because there's a lot of loan demand. but the credit standards are much higher and you don't have much to do with the capital. so you have to give it back if you don't need it. i'm talking about toous banks. it's not true around the wo
and then the mortgage re-phi boom in this interest rate environment has been a boom in the past couple of years. those are going to expire at some point. with interest rates where they are, it's difficult for the banks on margin. there's no question the banking system is much stronger, earning better and is has much higher capital and liquidity than it's had probably forever almost. >> you know, well, that's quite a statement because there's a lot of people who would still say banks...